Wildlife Populations

Remarkable wildlife recoveries have taken place due to efforts by government, conservation NGOs and conservancies to minimise poaching and ensure the sustainable use of wildlife. This was initially most evident in Namibia’s north-west, where wildlife had been reduced to small numbers through drought and poaching by the early 1980s. It is estimated that there were only 250 elephants and 65 black rhinos in the north-west at that time, and populations of other large mammals had been reduced by 60–90% since the early 1970s.

Data from the MEFT and NACSO shows that the number of rhinos and elephants has increased substantially since Namibia’s independence in 1990. Game counts indicate that springbok, gemsbok and mountain zebra populations increased by a factor of 10 between 1982 and the early 2000s, then stabilised for a decade. Since 2012 a combination of factors has resulted in a reduction of game numbers in areas surveyed: drought, animals moving out of the survey areas, and suspected poaching.

Wildlife populations in the North-West

The graphs show total estimated populations of three indicator species: gemsbok, springbok and zebra, from aerial censuses prior to the year 2000. The annual North-West Game Count, shown on the right for the same species, counts the number of animals seen per 100 kilometres driven. This graph shows population trends over time and does not show total population estimates. The 2022 road counts show a slight increase in gemsbok, a decrease in springbok and approximately the same number of zebra as compared to 2021. The factors affecting the downward trend over the past several years in these populations are expected to be due primarily to the drought and competition with livestock for the decreasing biomass available as depicted in the NDVI map. Funding is now being sought for a research study to better understand the main causes for continued wildlife declines in this area.

North-West predator sightings

While game counts provide reliable estimates of plains game, predator numbers are harder to estimate, including lion populations. Conservancies use the Event Book monitoring system to record sightings of predators. Observations of predator sightings in the northwest suggest a decline in populations, likely due to declining prey populations and increased conflict with people due to livestock losses. The predator sightings index is produced by dividing the number of physical sightings recorded during the year by the number of event books (one book per game guard).

Wildlife populations in the North-East

In north-east Namibia conservancies are small and integrally connected to the unfenced adjacent national parks. As a result, the north-east ground-based game counts reflect wildlife populations across both conservancies and the national parks (2018 data are omitted, as game numbers were not counted in the national parks during this year). Five selected species are shown in this graph, which includes national parks adjacent to conservancies. Wildlife moves freely between parks and conservancies in the region. In general terms, significant herbivore recoveries have occurred in the Zambezi Region over the past decade and herbivore populations here are now generally stable, although year-to-year fluctuations can be quite high. The recoveries have been due largely to successful breeding, reduced poaching, wildlife introductions, and the dramatic improvement of local attitudes towards wildlife conservation. In the past year there haven’t been any significant changes in game count numbers in the Zambezi Region; changes that did occur may be attributed to inconsistent rainfall and movement of animals across borders.

North-East predator sightings

In contrast to north-west Namibia, hyaena and jackal numbers in conservancies have declined significantly over the past decade in the north-east. Spotted hyaena, black-backed jackal and leopard sightings appear to have stabilised after the last few years of decline. Following a recovery and stabilisation of lion in the years 2012 to 2015, sightings in north-east conservancies appear to be declining.

Defining and tracking wildlife status

As wildlife densities vary, conservation management efforts focus on maintaining populations between lower and upper thresholds. Maintaining numbers above the lower threshold ensures that the species is able to recover from external impacts such as drought, disease, predation, utilisation and poaching. Keeping numbers below the upper threshold enables viable offtakes and ensures the population stays in balance with its habitat and other land uses.

Tracking population trends with the expectation that wildlife numbers should always increase is not viable in the longer term. More sophisticated monitoring tools now define the ‘species richness’ and ‘population health’ of game in conservancies.

Using game count data and information from a wide variety of other sources, wildlife experts compile ‘species richness’ lists for each conservancy. These show the present diversity of species in the conservancy relative to past diversity. The population health of each species is also scored, and from the two sets of information maps are generated to portray wildlife status in conservancies.

Assessment of species richness and population health for all conservancies

The overall status of wildlife in conservancies across Namibia is shown in the figures below.

Species richness

The wildlife species richness map indicates the large wildlife species currently present in conservancies, as a percentage of those that were present in the past. A high score means that a large percentage of the species are still in the area.

It is evident from the species richness map that the majority of conservancies have 80% or more of their historical species intact, ten have between 70 and 80% of their original species present, and about 25 conservancies have less than 70% of their indigenous game species left. The best means of correcting these deficiencies (and enabling these conservancies to enter the wildlife economy) is through strategic game reintroductions, which is only possible if there is funding available for the purchase and or capture and relocation of game from areas where these species are abundant. This should be a priority area for urgent fund-raising, particularly at this particular juncture where much of the country is under drought-induced stress and many conservancies need to reduce their wildlife numbers.

Wildlife population health

The population health map indicates the percentage of all large wildlife species that historically occurred, which currently have a healthy population in a particular conservancy. A healthy population is one large enough to sustain itself. National parks included on the maps for comparison are Etosha, Nkasa Rupara, Mudumu and the core areas of Bwabwata. It is evident from the wildlife population health maps that, whereas many conservancies have good species richness, very few have healthy populations of these species. This situation has declined sharply in recent years as a result of the drought, which has heavily impacted wildlife populations and its going to take years of careful management and protection, including on-going reduced offtake quotas, to rebuild these populations. This will, in turn, adversely impact financial benefits that accrue to conservancies, and more seriously, the meat benefits that individual households have valued over the years. The pressure for prematurely increasing quotas will therefore be high, and this tension between rebuilding wildlife populations and addressing community needs and aspirations will be extremely challenging over the coming number of years.

Wildlife translocations into conservancies

Targeted reintroductions of game by the MEFT have boosted natural increases to help rapidly rebuild the wildlife base. Translocated game was moved from areas of over-abundance to areas where populations were low. Whilst the bulk of the species translocated have been common game such as springbok, gemsbok, kudu and eland, the introductions have also included highly valuable animals such as sable, black-faced impala, giraffe and black rhino (see table). Several species that had become locally extinct have been re-established through translocations, namely giraffe, black-faced impala, Burchell’s zebra, blue wildebeest, eland, sable and black rhino. Conservancy formation has helped to reinstate the range of these species and a number of conservancies are now officially recognised as rhino custodians. From 1999 to 2013, a total of 10,568 animals of 15 different species were translocated to 31 registered conservancies and four conservancy complexes by the MEFT and funding partners including WWF, New Zealand and the Millennium Challenge Account. The total value of the translocated animals (excluding black rhino) was in excess of N$30 million.

Species	1999-2001	2002-2004	2005-2007	2008-2010	2011	2012	2013	Total
Ostrich	-	11	-	-	-	-	-	11
Springbok	181	550	-	880	-	196	-	1,807
Common impala	171	69	68	198	-	296	-	802
Black-faced impala	-	31	162	663	-	-	-	856
Hartebeest	315	254	-	499	53	43	-	1,164
Sable	-	-	37	-	-	-	-	37
Gemsbok	177	251	-	849	-	203	-	1,480
Blue wildebeest	33	129	116	48	-	269	-	595
Waterbuck	-	-	-	26	99	95	244	464
Kudu	215	106	83	360	-	88	49	901
Eland	83	193	185	289	50	110	252	1,162
Burchell's zebra	1	31	50	192	-	93	-	367
Hartmann's zebra	-	-	197	147	-	202	-	546
Giraffe	-	10	48	102	132	40	-	332
Black rhino	-	4	10	30	-	-	-	44
Grand Total	1,176	1,639	956	4,283	334	1,635	545	10,568